How Would Gore Govern?
If Vice President Gore were to move to the Oval Office, would he continue to use the decision-making style he has perfected over the past eight years: a style that emphasizes detailed mastery of policy issues and, in the minds of some observers, insufficient delegation to his staff?

Source: The Washington Post

would Gore lead as he has in the past, or would we see a new gore in the oval office?

Gore has had trouble convincing voters that he deserves part of the credit for the past eight years of economic expansion

Ohio: Locked Up for Bush or Suddenly Competitive?
Ohio, with 21 electoral votes, was placed in the Bush column by most political pundits since early in the fall. Al Gore has not campaigned in the state since October 4. George W. Bush added an Ohio stop to his schedule last week. The Democrats have poured hundreds of thousands of dollars in new advertising money into the Buckeye State. Is Ohio becoming a competitive state just a week before election day?

source: The New York Times

West Virginia: Not A Solid Democratic State This Year
Normally, a Democratic candidate should not have to worry about winning the electoral votes of West Virginia - a state with a long Democratic tradition and a large number of lower-income and working-class voters. But recent polls show that Bush may be slightly ahead in West Virginia. Some observers say that Gore's positions on guns and environmental issues may be hurting him in West Virginia.

Source: The New York Times

Gore Tries to Drive Nader's Vote Down in Wisconsin
Al Gore visited Wisconsin, a state in which Ralph Nader's support has increased in recent days, in an effort to keep that state's electoral votes from tipping to George W. Bush.

source: The BBC

Bush Attacks Gore Personally
As the pace of the campaign escalates in the final days, Governor Bush has increasingly turned his focus to attacks on Vice President Gore's character. Bush unleashed one of his harshest personal attacks Thursday on Al Gore, portraying the vice president as a timid and unprincipled chameleon even as he pledged to "restore civility to our national politics."

Source: The LA Times

Campaign Turns Negative in the Final Week
The Gore campaign criticizes a television advertisement paid for by an anonymous group of pro-Bush supporters (suggesting that Gore traded nuclear technology for campaign contributions from "Red China"), while the Bush campaign criticizes telephone calls being made in Michigan (suggesting that Bush's policies contributed to a nursing home resident's death). Negative advertising is likely to become more frequent until election day.

Source: The New York Times

Op-Ed piece for Nov. 1

Election Analysis and Commentary

Sunday, October 29, 2000

Eric L. Davis

The Constitution requires that a census be taken every ten years in order that the seats in the United States House of Representatives may be apportioned among the states according to the states' populations. Census Day in the United States was April 1, 2000. In early 2001, the Census Bureau will announce the current population of each state and how many seats each state will have in the House of Representatives.

As was the case following the censuses of 1970, 1980, and 1990, there will be a shift of House seats following the census of 2000. Most of the shifts will involve seat losses in Northern and Midwestern states and seat gains in Southern and Western states. For the past four decades, states in the South and West have been growing faster than the national average, while states in the North and Midwest have been growing more slowly.

While the exact apportionment of the 435 House seats among the 50 states will not be known until the census data release early next year, independent demographers have projected the changes that are likely to take place. These projections have proven to be very close to the actual results in previous census years.

Eight states are projected to lose a total of ten House seats. New York and Pennsylvania are expected to lose two seats each, while Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin are projected to lose one seat each. Seven states are projected to gain the ten House seats in question. Arizona, Georgia, and Texas are expected to gain two seats each, with California, Colorado, Florida, and Nevada each gaining one seat. The states' new seat counts in the House will be reflected in the allocation of electoral votes beginning with the 2004 presidential election.

The state legislatures in all states that have more than one member of the House of Representatives (all states except Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming) must redraw the lines of all House districts in their states following the release of the census data. Such redistricting has been required by the Supreme Court since the 1960s. Under the Court's "one person-one vote" doctrine, the weight of the vote cast by an individual anyplace within a state must be as close to mathematical equality as possible. Because there have been population shifts within the states over the past ten years, today's congressional district lines, which were drawn ten years ago, do not reflect the current distribution of population within the states.

Redistricting is a very political process. Members of state legislatures often try to advantage candidates of their own party. If one party has a majority of both houses of the state legislature and controls the governor's office, it can attempt to redraw the district lines in ways that would likely result in seat gains for their party's candidates and seat losses for the other party's candidates. In fact, if one party controls the redistricting process in a state, it might be able to gain seats in the House even if the state loses seats as a whole. All of the seat losses will be concentrated in areas of the state that are represented by the party that is in the minority in the state capital.

Because redistricting is so political, and because control of the U.S. House of Representatives will be so closely balanced between the Democrats and the Republicans in 2001 and 2002, both parties are paying close attention to the outcomes of state legislative races this year, particularly in those states that are likely to gain or lose two seats in the House after the census. A shift in party control of a state legislative chamber in 2000 could translate into a change in party control of the U.S. House in 2002.

The state where the most is at stake in redistricting this year is Pennsylvania. The Keystone State is projected to lose two House seats as of 2002. Pennsylvania's 21-member House delegation now consists of 11 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Currently, the governor of Pennsylvania is a Republican, Tom Ridge, and his term extends to 2002. The Pennsylvania Legislature is closely divided between the parties, with the Republicans having a three-seat majority in the State House and a 10-seat majority in the State Senate. If the Democrats could win the small number of seats necessary to win control of the Pennsylvania House, party control of the state legislature would be split, with each party controlling one chamber. This would mean that both Democrats and Republicans would be able to protect their parties' interests in redistricting. However, if the Pennsylvania House remains Republican, the GOP could use its control of the state capitol in Harrisburg to pass a redistricting plan that switches the 11-to-10 Democratic majority to a 10-to-9 Republican majority.

Other seats where the outcome of redistricting rides on this year_s state legislative elections are Illinois (6-seat Democratic majority in State House, 5-seat Republican majority in State Senate, Republican governor), Texas (6-seat Democratic majority in State House, 1-seat Republican majority in State Senate, Republican governor who may be leaving office in January, who would be replaced by a Republican lieutenant governor), and Wisconsin (10-seat Republican majority in State House, 1-seat Democratic majority in State Senate, Republican governor).

The United States House will be closely divided after the 2000 elections. But party control of the House could switch in 2002, because of the reappointment of seats among the states, and because many members of the House will have to run in districts with new boundaries.