Op-Ed piece
for Nov. 1
Election Analysis and Commentary
Sunday, October 29, 2000
Eric L. Davis
The Constitution requires that a census be taken
every ten years in order that the seats in the United States House
of Representatives may be apportioned among the states according
to the states' populations. Census Day in the United States was
April 1, 2000. In early 2001, the Census Bureau will announce
the current population of each state and how many seats each state
will have in the House of Representatives.
As was the case following the censuses of 1970,
1980, and 1990, there will be a shift of House seats following
the census of 2000. Most of the shifts will involve seat losses
in Northern and Midwestern states and seat gains in Southern and
Western states. For the past four decades, states in the South
and West have been growing faster than the national average, while
states in the North and Midwest have been growing more slowly.
While the exact apportionment of the 435 House seats
among the 50 states will not be known until the census data release
early next year, independent demographers have projected the changes
that are likely to take place. These projections have proven to
be very close to the actual results in previous census years.
Eight states are projected to lose a total of ten
House seats. New York and Pennsylvania are expected to lose two
seats each, while Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma,
and Wisconsin are projected to lose one seat each. Seven states
are projected to gain the ten House seats in question. Arizona,
Georgia, and Texas are expected to gain two seats each, with California,
Colorado, Florida, and Nevada each gaining one seat. The states'
new seat counts in the House will be reflected in the allocation
of electoral votes beginning with the 2004 presidential election.
The state legislatures in all states that have more
than one member of the House of Representatives (all states except
Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont,
and Wyoming) must redraw the lines of all House districts in their
states following the release of the census data. Such redistricting
has been required by the Supreme Court since the 1960s. Under
the Court's "one person-one vote" doctrine, the weight of the
vote cast by an individual anyplace within a state must be as
close to mathematical equality as possible. Because there have
been population shifts within the states over the past ten years,
today's congressional district lines, which were drawn ten years
ago, do not reflect the current distribution of population within
the states.
Redistricting is a very political process. Members
of state legislatures often try to advantage candidates of their
own party. If one party has a majority of both houses of the state
legislature and controls the governor's office, it can attempt
to redraw the district lines in ways that would likely result
in seat gains for their party's candidates and seat losses for
the other party's candidates. In fact, if one party controls the
redistricting process in a state, it might be able to gain seats
in the House even if the state loses seats as a whole. All of
the seat losses will be concentrated in areas of the state that
are represented by the party that is in the minority in the state
capital.
Because redistricting is so political, and because
control of the U.S. House of Representatives will be so closely
balanced between the Democrats and the Republicans in 2001 and
2002, both parties are paying close attention to the outcomes
of state legislative races this year, particularly in those states
that are likely to gain or lose two seats in the House after the
census. A shift in party control of a state legislative chamber
in 2000 could translate into a change in party control of the
U.S. House in 2002.
The state where the most is at stake in redistricting
this year is Pennsylvania. The Keystone State is projected to
lose two House seats as of 2002. Pennsylvania's 21-member House
delegation now consists of 11 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Currently,
the governor of Pennsylvania is a Republican, Tom Ridge, and his
term extends to 2002. The Pennsylvania Legislature is closely
divided between the parties, with the Republicans having a three-seat
majority in the State House and a 10-seat majority in the State
Senate. If the Democrats could win the small number of seats necessary
to win control of the Pennsylvania House, party control of the
state legislature would be split, with each party controlling
one chamber. This would mean that both Democrats and Republicans
would be able to protect their parties' interests in redistricting.
However, if the Pennsylvania House remains Republican, the GOP
could use its control of the state capitol in Harrisburg to pass
a redistricting plan that switches the 11-to-10 Democratic majority
to a 10-to-9 Republican majority.
Other seats where the outcome of redistricting
rides on this year_s state legislative elections are Illinois
(6-seat Democratic majority in State House, 5-seat Republican
majority in State Senate, Republican governor), Texas (6-seat
Democratic majority in State House, 1-seat Republican majority
in State Senate, Republican governor who may be leaving office
in January, who would be replaced by a Republican lieutenant governor),
and Wisconsin (10-seat Republican majority in State House, 1-seat
Democratic majority in State Senate, Republican governor).
The United States House will be closely divided
after the 2000 elections. But party control of the House could
switch in 2002, because of the reappointment of seats among the
states, and because many members of the House will have to run
in districts with new boundaries.
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