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Sarasota
High Is Not a Sob Story source:
The Opinion Journal
Op-Ed piece for the week of
October 4th
Election Analysis and Commentary
Saturday, October 7, 2000
Eric L. Davis
The estimated audience for the first debate between
George W. Bush and Al Gore, broadcast last Tuesday night, was
46 million people. The estimated audience for the vice-presidential
debate on Thursday night between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman
was 28 million people. These numbers represent some of the lowest
viewership for presidential campaign debates since 1976. In recent
election cycles, presidential candidate debates have typically
drawn 60 to 70 million viewers, and vice presidential debates
40 to 50 million viewers.
Viewership for the conventions held this summer
was also down from previous election years, and more respondents
than in earlier election cycles have told pollsters that they
have not been following the election campaign closely, or do not
have a strong interest in the election results.
This year's campaign, according to nearly all independent
analysts, is the closest presidential campaign since the Kennedy-Nixon
race of 1960. There are substantial differences between Gore and
Bush on a large number of key domestic and foreign policy issues.
Partisan control of both houses of Congress hangs in the balance.
Why, with the race so close and the stakes so high, does interest
in the campaign appear to be lower this year than in previous
election cycles?
One reason might be that the media have offered
less campaign coverage to the voters in 2000. This summer, the
big three networks offered no more than one hour of convention
coverage per night. NBC gave its affiliates the choice of covering
a baseball playoff game or the presidential debate on Tuesday
night. All the stations on the Fox network showed baseball rather
than the vice presidential candidates on Thursday night.
Some executives at the major networks have justified
these cutbacks in campaign coverage by saying that viewers who
really want to see political news and events may do so on the
all-news networks: CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News Channel. This argument
is problematic on two grounds. First, not all households with
televisions have access to the cable news channels, whereas the
reach of ABC, CBS, and NBC is pervasive throughout the country.
Second, by providing sports or entertainment alternatives to important
campaign events such as debates, the major networks do less well
in meeting their responsibility to serve the public interest.
NBC chose to tape-delay its Olympics coverage. Could it not have
tape-delayed Tuesday_s baseball game so that all NBC stations
would have carried the presidential debate? Isn't it more important
for all potential voters to have a chance to view George W. Bush
and Al Gore live than to know immediately whether the Yankees
or the A's won the first game of a playoff series?
The decline in interest in the campaign should not
be attributed solely to the media. More and more Americans see
national politics as less relevant to their lives,thinking that
matters affecting their jobs, their families, their schools, and
their neighborhoods are determined far more by individuals, businesses,
voluntary associations, and state and local governments than by
Washington. Although most Americans believe the country is now
headed in the right direction, many believe the credit for the
economic success of the past few years belongs far more to business
than to government.
According to this view, who is elected president
does not matter all that much, since the economy is apt to continue
growing in the future as it has in the past. Such an interpretation
does not take into account the substantial differences in economic
policy, and the role of the government in the economy and society,
that are being put forth on the campaign trail by Governor Bush
and Vice President Gore. National economic and regulatory policies
would be very different, depending on who wins this election.
The results of the presidential election will effect family and
neighborhood life, in many ways, over the next four years.
Other Americans claim to be just too busy to follow
politics. With more households made up of single parents with
children and two-earner families (often working at different times
of the day), with the after-school lives of children increasingly
structured and organized, and with the number of Americans having
to travel for business increasing every year _ for all of these
reasons, people have less time in their days to read newspapers
or watch political coverage on television.
There are several implications of the declining
interest in politics and public affairs that are worth noting.
First, paid television advertising becomes an increasingly important
source of information about candidates, their biographies, and
their policies. Voters may learn more about those seeking office
from the commercials than from the newspapers or the news shows.
But the information presented in the commercials may not always
be accurate, and is not presented in a context in which facts
can be checked or assertions rebutted.
Second, declining interest in politics may result
in declining election turnout. Voter participation in presidential
elections peaked in the modern era in 1960, when just over 60
percent of eligible voters went to the polls. Over the past forty
years, presidential-year turnout has fallen to barely 50 percent
of those eligible. Some analysts believe turnout this November
might actually fall to as low as 48 percent of American citizens
aged 18 and older. In comparison, turnout in national elections
in European democracies routinely runs between 70 and 90 percent
of those eligible to vote.
Declines in turnout are not uniform across the population.
Those who have intense views on political issues _ prescription
drug benefits for the elderly, policies toward gun registration,
or abortion _ turn out regardless of the overall level of participation.
Those who may not be single- or multiple-issue advocates are more
likely to be found among the non-voters. As the proportion of
Americans going to the polls declines, the share of issue advocates
among the electorate increases.
One possible indication of turnout trends on November
7 will be viewership of the remaining two presidential debates.
If viewership increases from the 46 million of the first debate,
the predicted decline in voter turnout might not occur. But if
the first debate turns out to have had the largest audience of
the three, that does not bode well for a turnout of greater than
50 percent in November.
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