Other Stories:
Telemarketing
as a Campaign Tool source:
abcnews
Op Ed piece for Nov. 8th
Election Projections
Sunday, November 5, 2000
Eric L.
Davis
I am projecting that George W. Bush will win a
narrow popular and electoral vote majority, and that the Republicans
will maintain control of both the House and the Senate by the
narrowest of margins.
My final electoral vote projection has Bush at 279
and Gore at 259. In the popular vote, I would give Bush 49 percent,
Gore 47 percent, Nader 3 percent, Buchanan and others 1 percent.
Here is how I line up the states by region, with
the number of electoral votes for each candidate in each region:
New England: Gore wins Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts,
New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Gore 35, Bush 0.
Mid-Atlantic: Gore wins Delaware, the District of
Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Bush
wins West Virginia. Gore 87, Bush 5.
South: Gore wins Florida and Tennessee. Bush wins
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi,
North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.
Bush 127, Gore 36.
Midwest: Gore wins Illinois and Minnesota. Bush
wins Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, North
Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Bush 97, Gore 32.
Mountain States: Bush wins Arizona, Colorado, Idaho,
Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Bush 40, Gore
0. Pacific: Gore wins California, Hawaii, and Washington. Bush
wins Alaska and Oregon. Gore 69, Bush 10.
My final Senate projection has the Republicans with
a 52 to 48 majority, down from 54 to 46 currently.
Here is my Senate summary:
Republicans re-elected (15): Abraham (MI), Ashcroft
(MO), Burns (MT), Chafee (RI), DeWine (OH), Frist (TN), Hatch
(UT), Hutchison (TX), Jeffords (VT), Kyl (AZ), Lott (MS), Lugar
(IN), Santorum (PA), Snowe (ME), Thomas (WY).
Republicans who beat Democratic incumbents (1):
Allen (VA), defeating Robb.
Republicans who win formerly Democratic open seats
(1): Ensign (NV)
Democrats re-elected (10): Akaka (HI), Bingaman
(NM), Byrd (WV), Conrad (ND), Lieberman (CT), Feinstein (CA),
Kennedy (MA), Kohl (WI), Miller (GA), Sarbanes (MD).
Democrats who hold open seats (3): Clinton (NY),
Corzine (NJ), Nelson (NE)
Democrats who win formerly Republican open seats
(1): Nelson (FL)
Democrats who beat Republican incumbents (3): Cantwell
(WA), defeating Gorton; Carper (DE), defeating Roth; Dayton (MN),
defeating Grams.
My final House projection has 219 Republicans, 214
Democrats, and 2 independents (one of whom votes with the Republicans
on organizational matters, one of whom votes with the Democrats).
This is a gain for the Democrats of 4 seats, not large enough
for them to win control of the House.
During Wednesday evening's Webcast, I will discuss
these projections in light of the actual election results.
|