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Readings and Op-Ed piece

from the week of Oct. 4th

What Americans Need to Know about Congress
Lee H. Hamilton was a respected Democratic member of the House from Indiana for three decades. Although not someone who received much media attention, Hamilton was known among Washington insiders for this probity, hard work, and thoughtfulness. After leaving Congress, Hamilton became president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, part of the Smithsonian Institution. Here is a link to a speech Hamilton recently delivered to the American Political Science Association in which he offered his views on how public understanding of Congress could be improved.
Source: The Wilson Center


Lee H. Hamilton's remarks, "Ten Things I Wish Political Scientists Would Teach about Congress"


Rep. Rick Lazio addresses a rally in Little Falls as he finished an upstate swing in his battle for the New York Senate seat.

Lazio's Hopes Lie in Split Tickets
PEARL RIVER, N.Y. Ellis Mirsky is a big problem for Hillary Rodham Clinton. He's a Jewish suburban lawyer who supported Clinton's husband in two presidential elections and plans to support Vice President Gore in this one. He watched Rep. Rick Lazio (R-N.Y.) speak at a business breakfast here last week and left muttering about misconjugated verbs.

Source: The Washington Post

Battling for Pennsylvania's and Michigan's electoral votes
How will changes in PennsylvaniaÕs economy from heavy industry to an entrepreneurial economy affect the votersÕ choices on November 7? This article profiles the campaign in the Lehigh Valley, a part of Pennsylvania that has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1968.


Kimberly Appel, 34, left, and Rakesh Patel, 36, work in the laboratory at IQE factory in Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley.


Pennsylvania and Michigan are two of the battleground states in campaign 2000.
PONTIAC, Mich., Sept. 28 — Last Feb. 22, Gov. George W. Bush lost the Michigan Republican primary to Senator John McCain of Arizona, thanks to a notably poor showing among independents, moderates and women.

Source: The New York Times

Scoring The Debates
The only scorecard that counts for Tuesday night's first presidential debate of 2000 is the public reaction. But in thinking about my own scorecard, I've jotted down five tests for Vice President Gore and five others for Texas Gov. George W. Bush

Source: The Washington Post


Opinion columnist David Broder shares his criteria for the first presedential debates

Public Opinion on Key Issues in the 2000 Campaign
For several months, The Washington Post, the Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University faculty have been conducting a series of in-depth polls on important issues in the 2000 campaign. These articles contain the findings of these polls on education, health care, and "moral" issues. For those interested in exploring these polls in more depth, the articles contain links to tables with the complete survey results.
Education, Health care, "moral issues"
Source: The Wahington Post
Debates stakes seen as critical by candidates
Washington, Sept. 30 — When Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore appear side by side in Boston on Tuesday before the largest single television audience of the presidential campaign, officials in both camps say, the stakes will be far greater than they had anticipated because the contest is so excruciatingly tight.
source: The New York Times

Debating our Destiny
"Debating Our Destiny" looks at the pivotal moments from the last 40 years of presidential debates through the eyes of those who were there. On this site, you can read, listen to or watch the program as well as browse extended interviews with the former candidates and coverage of the individual debates and campaigns.
Source: PBS

It's Not Only What You Say, but How
Washington - If Al Gore and George W. Bush really want to win over millions of Americans in their first debate on Tuesday night, they might dispense with the briefing books, give their policy advisers the weekend off and get some tips from a pro: Mark Burnett, the executive producer of the megahit television show "Survivor."
Source: The New York Times

 

Op-Ed piece from Oct. 4th

Election Analysis and Commentary

Sunday, October 1, 2000
Eric L. Davis

Partisan control of all three national political institutions: the Presidency, the Senate, and the House, is at stake in the elections of 2000. The contest for the majority of Senate seats is so close that control of the Senate for the next two years could depend on whether or not Sen. Joseph Lieberman continues to run both for re-election to the Senate from Connecticut and for Vice President of the United States.

At the start of the year, the partisan breakdown of the Senate was 55 Republicans and 45 Democrats. When Sen. Paul Coverdell (R.-Ga.) unexpectedly died after suffering a stroke in July, Georgia's Democratic Governor Roy Barnes appointed Democrat Zell Miller, his predecessor as governor, to the Senate vacancy, making the partisan breakdown of the Senate 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats. Sen. Miller is expected to win election on November 7 to the remaining four years of Sen. Coverdell's term.

Control of the Senate in January 2001 will be determined by the outcome of contests in 10 of the 34 states electing senators on November 7. Four of these races involve Democratic-held seats, and six of them involve Republican-held seats.

The critical seats now held by Democrats are:

1. Nevada. The retirement of Democratic Sen. Richard Bryan will almost certainly result in the Republicans picking up a Senate seat. Rep. John Ensign (R.-Las Vegas) is likely to defeat Democratic candidate Ed Bernstein, an attorney who has never held elective office.

2. New Jersey. When Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg announced his retirement in 1999, Republicans thought they had a good chance of picking up this seat. They saw Gov. Christie Whitman as their strongest candidate for a Senate seat in New Jersey in several decades. Whitman then decided not to seek the Senate seat, in part because she did not see how she could raise the funds needed to run an effective campaign against Democratic candidate Jon Corzine, former chairman of the investment bank Goldman Sachs. Corzine spent $34 million, nearly all of it his own money, on his successful Democratic primary campaign, and he could very well end up spending more than $80 million of his own funds by the time the general election campaign is over. Republican candidate Rep. Bob Franks will have a difficult time winning this Senate seat against the onslaught of Corzine's funds.

3. New York. The "mother of all Senate races" in the 2000 election cycle. For most New Yorkers, the race is coming down to "are you for or against Hillary Rodham Clinton"? Recent polls show the First Lady building a lead just a point or two greater than the margin of statistical error against Rep. Rick Lazio. Both Democrats and Republicans had planned to pour millions of dollars into the Empire State for this race, the Democrats because they need to hold the New York seat, from which Sen. Patrick Moynihan is retiring, if they are to have any hope for a Senate majority, the Republicans because they want to end the Clintons' political career once and for all. Clinton's and Lazio's agreement last week to ban "soft money" advertisements on their behalf may hurt Clinton more, because Lazio has been more successful in raising "hard money" contributions of $1,000 or less. The soft-money ban may not take hold, because the candidates' may not be able to restrain their interest-group supporters from buying advertising time; in any case, this race is still too close to call, although the advantage appears to be with Mrs. Clinton.

4. Virginia. Sen. Charles Robb won a tough campaign against Lt. Col. Oliver North in 1994. Robb's opponent this year is former Governor George Allen, who had to leave office when his term expired in 1997 because of Virginia's "one term and out" rule. This is a race in which there are marked ideological differences between the candidates, on issues ranging from education tax credits to abortion to gun control. Most polls show Allen slightly ahead of Robb, a Senate incumbent who has not been closely identified with important national or Virginia issues, in a state that has tended to support Republican candidates in recent years.

The critical Senate seats now held by Republicans are:

1. Delaware. Sen. William Roth, chair of the Senate Finance Committee, has held this seat since 1970. Seeking to prevent Roth from winning a sixth term is popular Democratic Governor Tom Carper, who cannot run for re-election because of Delaware's term limits for state officeholders. Carper has won 10 consecutive statewide elections in Delaware, and his centrist policies, such as his program that allows parents to send their children to any public school in the state appeal to moderate and independent voters.

2. Florida. Democrats believe they are well-positioned to pick up this Senate seat, which opened up when GOP Sen. Connie Mack decided not to seek another term in 2000. The Republican candidate is Rep. Bill McCollum, whose vigorous role as a House manager in the impeachment of President Clinton is remembered unfavorably by some voters. The Democratic candidate, Insurance Commissioner and former Congressman Bill Nelson, will benefit from Al Gore's keeping Florida competitive in the presidential race, and a large turnout on behalf of the Gore-Lieberman ticket from South Florida's large Jewish population.

3. Michigan. Rep. Debbie Stabenow (D.-Lansing) is giving incumbent Republican Sen. Spencer Abraham a vigorous challenge. Al Gore has steadily increased his margin over George W. Bush in Michigan since the Democratic convention, in part because the United Automobile Workers has steadfastly supported the Vice President in recent weeks, after expressing some hesitancy about his candidacy over international trade issues, especially permanent normal trade relations with China. Gore is doing a good job mobilizing the union and the African-American vote, important voting blocks in Michigan, and Stabenow will benefit from intensive Democratic activity for the top of the ticket in Michigan.

4. Minnesota. Sen. Rod Grams, who is running for his second term in 2000, was first elected to the Senate in 1994, the year of the "Contract with America" and the "Gingrich Revolution." Grams may be a bit too conservative for Minnesota, but his Democratic opponent, former gubernatorial and senatorial hopeful Mark Dayton, has only held one state office (Auditor from 1990 to 1994) in spite of spending millions from his personal fortune on his own campaigns.

5. Missouri. Conservative Republican incumbent John Ashcroft gave some thought in 1998 to running for President. He decided to seek re-election to the Senate instead, perhaps because he thought his emphasis on social issues might play better in Missouri, and help the Republicans hold on to the Senate majority, than nationally. Ashcroft's challenger is Democratic Governor Mel Carhanan, who, like Carper in Delaware, is ineligible to run for another term. If Carnahan were to defeat Ashcroft, he would be one of the more conservative Democrats in the Senate.

6. Washington. Three-term GOP Sen. Slade Gorton has never received more than 56 percent of the vote in any election. His Democratic opponent this year is Maria Cantwell, a former U.S. House member who became an executive with Internet company RealNetworks.com. She spent over $5 million of her own funds to win the September 19 Democratic primary. Pacific Northwest voters have been hard to pin down this year _ both Gore and Bush, as well as Ralph Nader, have been spending substantial amounts of time and money in Oregon and Washington _ so a closely-fought contest for the Senate appears to be shaping up in Washington. If Cantwell is willing to dip into her personal wealth in a substantial way, she may force Gorton into a big-spending advertising campaign that will exhaust his resources and those of his party and interest group supporters.

As I noted above, I believe that two of the critical Democratic-held Senate seats, Nevada and Virginia, are likely to switch to the GOP column on November 7. But if Jon Corzine wins in New Jersey and if Hillary Rodham Clinton wins in New York, and if the Democrats can win all six of the critical Republican held-seats (or, if Robb is re-elected in Virginia, if the Democrats can win five out of six of the GOP held-seats), the Senate would be tied up at 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats. And this is where Joe Lieberman comes in. Currently he is seeking re-election to the Senate from Connecticut, as well as running for Vice President. Connecticut law does allow him to run for two offices simultaneously.

The Constitution provides that the terms of members of Congress begin on January 3, while the terms of the President and Vice President begin on January 20. If Lieberman were to be re-elected to the Senate and were to be elected Vice President, and if the Democrats held 50 of the 100 Senate seats on January 3, Vice President Al Gore, as presiding officer of the Senate, would cast the deciding vote to organize the Senate for the Democrats, meaning that the Democrats would chair all of the Senate committees. But no more than 17 days later, Lieberman would have to resign from the Senate in order to take the oath of office as Vice President. When the Connecticut Senate seat becomes vacant, an appointment to it would be made by Connecticut_s Republican governor John Rowland. Rowland would certainly appoint a Republican to the seat (as Georgia's Democratic Governor Roy Barnes appointed a Democrat when Republican Paul Coverdell died), which would make the Senate party balance 51 to 49 Republican. (The appointed Senator from Connecticut would serve until the next general election, in November 2002, at which point there would be an election for the remaining four years of the term to which Lieberman would have been elected in November 2000.) Under this scenario, once the new Republican from Connecticut were sworn in, the Republicans would have a Senate majority and they could move to replace all the Democratic committee chairs with Republicans.

If Lieberman were to withdraw as a candidate for re-election to the Senate before October 27, the Connecticut Democratic State Committee could choose a replacement for him, presumably Connecticut's Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. If Blumenthal were elected to the Senate in November, the possibility of the Republicans gaining a seat due to Lieberman's resignation would go away. (Republican Senatorial candidate Phil Giordano, the mayor of Waterbury, is not considered to be a serious threat to either Lieberman or a replacement.) Of course, there is a risk in this scenario for Lieberman: he could withdraw as a Senate candidate, and lose the Vice Presidency, and then be completely out of office in January.

As I noted above, the Connecticut seat will probably not make a difference in terms of partisan control of the Senate: the Republicans should be able to hold on to at least one of their six critical Senate seats. But because the races for all six of these seats are so tight, Democrats have not given up on the possibility of returning to majority party status in the Senate in January 2001.